Shop – Economics for Policy

More Housing

Francesco Franco

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Housing is a problem of intergenerational justice. On one hand, the younger generations who still do not own a property are adversely impacted by soaring house prices. On the other hand, home owners, who usually belong to the older generations, stand to benefit from rising house prices, as they can sell them at a higher price or increase rents.

Non-Adjustment of the Pensions According to Law 53-B/2006

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In September of 2022 the Portuguese government announced that in January of 2023 the pension adjustment formula, as described in Law 53-B/2006, would not be applied. According to the government, the application of the formula would mean that “the first negative balances of the welfare system would be anticipated to the late 2030s and [it was estimated] that the social security fund would be depleted by the first half of the 2040s.”1 In return, the government published a law that, among other measures, created an exceptional complement to retirees, corresponding to half of their October 2022 pension

Sustainable Employment Commitment

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The Sustainable Employment Commitment (CES) is a measure that is included in the Resolution and Resilience Program. It consists of an exceptional and transitional measure in which the government, through the Institute of Employment and Professional Training (IEFP), provides financial support to employers that hire unemployed workers (up to 30,000).

Measuring Wage Inequality Under Right Censoring

Paulo Rodrigues

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There is a growing literature documenting that the persistence of time series may change over time, and as a consequence, shifts in the long-run equilibrium of macroeconomic variables are expected. An important example is the significant increase in public debt in certain periods of time due to increases in government expenditures which are not matched by revenue counterparts. In this paper, new residual-based Wald-type tests are proposed which are designed to detect segmented cointegration, i.e., subsamples during which equilibrium relations exist.

Transformed Regression-based Long-horizon Predictability Tests

Paulo Rodrigues

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We propose new tests for long-horizon predictability based on IVX estimation of a transformed regression which explicitly accounts for the over-lapping nature of the dependent variable in the long-horizon regression arising from temporal aggregation. To improve efficiency, we moreover incorporate the residual augmentation approach recently used in the context of short-horizon predictability testing by Demetrescu and Rodrigues (2022).

Tests for Segmented Cointegration: An Application to US Governments Budgets

Paulo Rodrigues

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There is a growing literature documenting that the persistence of time series may change over time, and as a consequence, shifts in the long-run equilibrium of macroeconomic variables are expected. An important example is the significant increase in public debt in certain periods of time due to increases in government expenditures (…)

The Effect of Monetary Policy on Household Consumption Expenditures in Portugal: A Decomposition of the Transmission Channel

João Duarte

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We follow Slacalek et al. (2020) monetary transmission decomposition approach to investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on household consumption expenditures in Portugal since joining the euro area. Extending their analysis to Portugal, we quantify the monetary policy transmission channels using (…)

Forgetting Approaches to Improve Forecasting

Paulo Rodrigues

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There is widespread evidence of parameter instability in the literature. One way to account for this feature is through the use of time-varying parameter (TVP) models that discount older data in favor of more recent data. This practice is often known as forgetting and can be applied in several different ways. (…)

Climate Policy in an Unequal World: Assessing the Cost of Risk on Vulnerable Households

Pedro Brinca

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Policy makers concerned with setting optimal values for carbon instruments to address climate change externalities often employ integrated assessment models (IAMs). In the past, these tools have relied on representative agent assumptions or other restrictive behaviour and welfare aggregations. (…)