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  • The Virus that devastated Tourism: The impact of Covid-19 on the Housing Market

    We study the causal impact of the negative shock on short-term rentals caused by covid-19 in the tourist-intensive city centre of Lisbon. Our difference-in-differences strategy uses a parish-level treatment relying on the pre-pandemic intensity of short-term rentals, using data between Q3 2018 and Q3 2020. The results suggest that landlords relocated properties into the long-term rental market, in which prices de-crease 4.1%, while listed quantities increase 20% in the treated civil parishes vis-`a-vis comparison ones. We also find evidence of an incremental negative impact on sale prices of 4.8% in treated areas. Our results are robust to the inclusion of Porto.

  • Extensions to IVX Methods of Inference for Return Predictability

    The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, we demonstrate that, provided either a suitable bootstrap implementation is employed or heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors are used, the IVX-based predictability tests of Kostakis et al. (2015) retain asymptotically valid inference under the null hypothesis under considerably weaker assumptions on the innovations than are required by Kostakis et al. (2015). Second, under the same assumptions, we develop asymptotically valid bootstrap implementations of the IVX tests. (…)

  • Rent Sharing in China: Magnitude, Heterogeneity and Drivers

    Do firms in China share rents with their workers? We address this question by examining firm-level panel data covering virtually all manufacturing firms over the period 2000–2007, representing an average of 52 million workers per year. We find evidence of rent sharing (RS), with wage–profit elasticities of between 4% and 6%. These results are based on multiple instrumental variables, including firm-specific international trade shocks.

  • One Money, Many Markets

    We study heterogeneity in the transmission of monetary shocks across euro-area (EA) countries using a dynamic factor model and high-frequency identification. Deploying a novel methodology to asses the degree of heterogeneity, we find it to be low in financial variables and output but significant in consumption, consumer prices, and variables related to local housing and labour markets.

  • Residual-augmented IVX Predictive Regression

    Bias correction in predictive regressions is known to reduce the empirical size problems of OLS-based predictability tests with persistent predictors. This paper shows that bias correction is also achieved in the context of the extended instrumental variable (IVX) predictability testing framework introduced by Kostakis et al. (2015).

  • The Persistence of Wages

    This paper documents the extent to which wage persistence can be explained by permanent worker, employer, and match heterogeneity. Standard methods used to perform such decompositions for industry or racial wage gaps are inappropriate for decomposing wage persistence in dynamic panel data models because of the incidental parameter problem. (…)

  • Measuring Labor Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19

    We measure labor demand and supply shocks at the sector level around the COVID-19 outbreak by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on monthly statistics of hours worked and real wages.

  • Regional and Sectorial Impacts of the Covid-19 Crisis: Evidence from Electronic Payments

    We use novel and comprehensive monthly data on electronic payments, by municipality and sector, together with cash withdrawals, to study the impact of Covid-19 in Portugal. Our difference-in-differences event study identifies a causal decrease of 17 and 40 percentage points on the year-on-year growth rate of overall purchases in March and April 2020. (…)

  • 30,000 Minimum Wages: The Economic Effects of Collective Bargaining Extensions

    Many governments extend the coverage of collective agreements to workers and employers that were not involved in their bargaining. These extensions may address co-ordination issues but may also distort competition by imposing sector-specific minimum wages and other work conditions that are not suitable for some firms and workers. In this article, we analyse the impact of such extensions along several economic margins. Drawing on the worker- and firm-level monthly data for Portugal, a country where extensions have been widespread, and the scattered timing of the extensions, we find that, while continuing workers experience wage increases following an extension, formal employment in the relevant sectors falls, on average, by 2 per cent.