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Economics for Policy: Short Article Series

Political Polarization in the U.S.: The Effect of Globalization

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Democracy has been regarded as the best system of government out of the whole span of imperfect options available. Its beauty comes from the importance given to the free individual contribution towards a wholesome societal growth, which is done in part through the establishment of one of the most sacred rights in any democratic society: the right to vote. (…)

The impact of the regulatory environment on digital automation in professional services

Francesco Franco

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The digital automation transformation that started in the last decade is changing business models by freeing humans from low value-added repetitive tasks and influencing consumers’ lives through cheaper online service delivery. Digital automation is also favouring the emergence of brand-new services (…)

Fire takes no Vacation: Impact of Fires on tourism

Luís Catela Nunes

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Many Mediterranean-type climates around the world will face increased risks of wildfires as a consequence of climate change. In this study we consider the case of Portugal and estimate the impact of the increasing risk of forest fires on tourism. Using data for 278 municipalities for the 2000-2016 period, we find a considerable negative impact of burned areas on the number of tourist arrivals, both domestic and inbound.

FFMS – Estudo sobre Mercado Imobiliário

Paulo Rodrigues

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After a relatively inexpressive evolution in the 1990s and early 2000s, housing prices in Portugal have been increasing in the recent past, with several consequences and impacts on society. This study aims to analyse different issues of economic and social relevance related to the Portuguese real estate market. (…)

O impacto do IRC na economia Portuguesa

Pedro Brinca

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This project contributes to the analysis of the impact that the tax system and its changes have on the Portuguese economic, social and legal reality. The conceptual framework in which the analysis is developed will be centered on the QUEST model (…)

La Caixa Social State of the Country Report

Susana Peralta

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This report is an annual initiative, in partnership with the La Caixa Foundation. It uses several databases, with an emphasis on the European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions, to characterize the situation of Portuguese households. (…)

Fiscal consolidation programs and income inequality

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We document a strong empirical relationship between higher income inequality and stronger recessive impacts of fiscal consolidation episodes across time and space. To explain this finding, we develop a life-cycle economy with uninsurable income risk. We calibrate our model to match key characteristics of several European economies, including inequality and fiscal structures, and study the effects of fiscal consolidation programs.

Extreme Temperature and Extreme Violence: Evidence from Russia

José Tavares

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We study the relationship between extreme temperatures and violent mortality, employing novel regional panel data from Russia. We find that extremely hot temperatures increase violent mortality, while extremely cold temperatures have no effect. The impact of hot temperature on violence is unequal across gender and age groups, rises noticeably during weekends, and leads to considerable social costs.

Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates: does Politics Matter?

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We look at the effect of exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, taking into account the effect of underlying political conditions. We present a model where strong politics (defined as policymakers facing longer political horizon and higher cohesion) are associated with better fiscal performance, but fixed exchange rates may revert this result and lead to less fiscal discipline.