Shop – Page 3 – Economics for Policy

Employee Training and Firm Performance: Evidence from ESF Grant Applications

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As work changes, firm-provided training may be particularly relevant. However, there is little causal evidence about the effects of training on firms. This paper studies a large training grants programme supported by the European Social Fund, contrasting firms in Portugal that received the grants and others that also applied but were unsuccessful. (…)

Can ATMs get out the vote? Evidence from a nationwide field experiment

José Tavares

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João Pereira dos Santos

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We report on a large-scale (randomized) field experiment we designed and conducted to assess ATMs’ (automatic teller machines) capacity to “get out the vote”. This is a heretofore unexploited method of voter mobilization. Our experimental design used the full universe of functioning ATMs in Portugal, which benefits from a sophisticated world class system, with wide national coverage.

Working to get fired? Unemployment benefits and employment duration

Pedro Martins

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In many countries, jobseekers are entitled to unemployment benefits (UBs) only if they have previously worked a minimum period of time. This institutional feature creates a sharp change in the disutility from unemployment at UB eligibility and may distort the duration of jobs. In this paper, we evaluate this eligibility effect using a regression discontinuity approach.

Do entry wages increase when severance pay drops? Not in recessions

Pedro Martins

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Severance pay may generate employment effects if wages are rigid. We study this by analysing a reform introduced during a recession that reduced severance pay for new hires while leaving it unchanged for previously-hired employees. We exploit this grandfathering dimension using a regression-discontinuity approach and long monthly data.

What drives social returns to education? A meta-analysis

Pedro Martins

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Education can generate important externalities that contribute towards economic growth and convergence. In this paper, we study such externalities and their drivers by conducting the first meta-analysis of the social returns to education literature. We analyse over 1,000 estimates from 32 journal articles published since 1993, covering 15 countries of different levels of development.

Multivariate fractional integration tests allowing for conditional heteroskedasticity with an application to return volatility and trading volume

Paulo Rodrigues

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We introduce a new joint test for the order of fractional integration of a multivariate fractionally integrated vector autoregressive (FIVAR) time series based on applying the Lagrange multiplier principle to a feasible generalised least squares estimate of the FIVAR model obtained under the null hypothesis. A key feature of the test we propose is that it is constructed using a heteroskedasticity‐robust estimate of the variance matrix.

Generational Accounting of Public Finances in Portugal

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This report explores the implications of ageing and low fertility for the sustainability of public finances in Portugal, and for monetary costs and benefits of government policy across generations. Measuring this sustainability is a challenging task. First, the temporal horizon of a nation is in principle unlimited, so the adjustment can be delayed for a long time. Second, sustainability depends on the future evolution of the macroeconomic environment, the design of public finances, and demographics. (…)

Economics for Policy: Short Article Series

Understanding Government Intervention on Flag Carriers: The Case of Alitalia and TAP Air Portugal

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In March 2020, the Italian government proposed a series of provisions in support of families, workers, and companies who were harshly hit by the Covid-19 pandemic and the related containment measures. Among other interventions within the government decree, commonly referred to as ‘Cura-Italia’ (lit. heal-Italy), up to €500 million were allocated to the re- nationalisation of the country’s flag carrier, Alitalia (Il Sole 24 ORE, 2020b). (…)

The Measurement of Cross-border Penetration in the EU Public Procurement Market

Francesco Franco

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The study explores the current state of play in cross-border activity in public procurement in the EU. The primary need for the research is to provide updated time series of the indicators computed in previous studies and gather additional economic evidence that could better contextualize these findings in the international settings of EU public procurement policy. (…)
The study is part of a larger project that E4P is currently doing in partnership with Prometeia and BIP .