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Cross-country Evidence on the Quality of Private Sector Fiscal Forecasts

Forecast comparison

  • Cross-country Evidence on the Quality of Private Sector Fiscal Forecasts

    This paper provides evidence of the quality of private sector forecasts of the budget balance between 1993 and 2009 for a sample of 29 countries, grouped into advanced and emerging countries. We find large differences across the two groups: forecasts for advanced economies are much more accurate than for emerging economies and much less subject to a bias towards optimism (…)