We measure labor demand and supply shocks at the sector level around the COVID-19 outbreak by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on monthly statistics of hours worked and real wages. Most sectors were subject to large negative labor supply and demand shocks in March and April 2020, with substantial heterogeneity in the size of […]
30,000 Minimum Wages: The Economic Effects of Collective Bargaining Extensions
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Many governments extend the coverage of collective agreements to workers and employers that were not involved in their bargaining. These extensions may address co-ordination issues but may also distort competition by imposing sector-specific minimum wages and other work conditions that are not suitable for some firms and workers. In this article, we analyse the impact […]
Employee training and firm performance: Evidence from ESF grant applications
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As work changes, firm-provided training may be particularly relevant. However, there is little causal evidence about the effects of training on firms. This paper studies a large training grants programme supported by the European Social Fund, contrasting firms in Portugal that received the grants and others that also applied but were unsuccessful. Combining several rich […]
Can ATMs get out the vote? Evidence from a nationwide field experiment
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We report on a large-scale (randomized) field experiment we designed and conducted to assess ATMs’ (automatic teller machines) capacity to “get out the vote”. This is a heretofore unexploited method of voter mobilization. Our experimental design used the full universe of functioning ATMs in Portugal, which benefits from a sophisticated world class system, with wide […]
In many countries, jobseekers are entitled to unemployment benefits (UBs) only if they have previously worked a minimum period of time. This institutional feature creates a sharp change in the disutility from unemployment at UB eligibility and may distort the duration of jobs. In this paper, we evaluate this eligibility effect using a regression discontinuity […]
Severance pay may generate employment effects if wages are rigid. We study this by analysing a reform introduced during a recession that reduced severance pay for new hires while leaving it unchanged for previously-hired employees. We exploit this grandfathering dimension using a regression-discontinuity approach and long monthly data. We find that entry wages did not […]
Education can generate important externalities that contribute towards economic growth and convergence. In this paper, we study such externalities and their drivers by conducting the first meta-analysis of the social returns to education literature. We analyse over 1,000 estimates from 32 journal articles published since 1993, covering 15 countries of different levels of development. Our […]
We study heterogeneity in the transmission of monetary shocks across euro-area (EA) countries using a dynamic factor model and high-frequency identification. Deploying a novel methodology to asses the degree of heterogeneity, we find it to be low in financial variables and output but significant in consumption, consumer prices, and variables related to local housing and […]
We introduce a new joint test for the order of fractional integration of a multivariate fractionally integrated vector autoregressive (FIVAR) time series based on applying the Lagrange multiplier principle to a feasible generalised least squares estimate of the FIVAR model obtained under the null hypothesis. A key feature of the test we propose is that […]
